It was nearly a month ago that Joe Biden became the Democrat’s presumptive nominee to take on President Trump in November’s election, after being endorsed by progressive rival Senator Bernie Sanders.
It is not lost on many on the progressive wing of the Democratic Party, that factional divisions in 2016 were a key reason for Trump’s victory. A potentially crucial percentage of Sanders’ disaffected supporters last time around, either voted for third party candidates, Trump himself, or simply stayed at home. Unlike in 2016, when Sanders delayed his endorsement of Hillary Clinton until July, this time he did not delay in endorsing Biden for President, as it became clear he would not win enough delegates to receive the nomination.
There is certainly more urgency among the Democrat’s in 2020, motivated by the fear of another 4 years of Trump. But the picture doesn’t look all rosy for Biden.
Though the former Vice President leads Trump in the polls by an average of 5 points, the majority of voters believe Trump will be re-elected. Not only do voters think Biden will lose in November, but there is a telling enthusiasm gap between supporters of the two. Trump’s are 19% more enthusiastic about their candidate than Biden’s, which often indicates who turns out more for their respective candidates come the election. The endorsement from Sanders could, however, be crucial, since over half of Sanders supporters say they are open to voting for a third party candidate. Biden must win over enough of these progressives if he wants to win in November.
He is also behind where Clinton was at this stage in 2016, both in polling in key swing states, and in enthusiasm among supporters. These are potentially damning statistics. Meanwhile, as the COVID-19 emergency continues, and Biden remains on lockdown, doing interviews from his basement, Trump is using his briefings as campaign rallies.
The last week has also presented its first serious challenge to the Biden campaign as sexual assault allegations have emerged. The former Vice President has been accused by Tara Reade, a staffer from his Senate office in the early 1990s. Given his strong stance during the Dr Ford allegations surrounding the Kavanaugh confirmation hearings of 2018, Biden has faced accusations of hypocrisy. It was then that Biden stated that if a woman came forward into the glaring lights, there should be a ‘presumption that at least the essence of what she is talking about is real’. The outright denial from Biden to the claims by Ms. Reade highlights his own double standard: his own rules do not seem to apply to him.
We know from 2016 that substantial allegations of sexual assault do not stand in the way of the Presidency, yet this presents a serious problem for the Democrats. Progressives who have endorsed Biden, like Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, potentially face backlash from their own supporters if they stand behind their man in the face of these claims. Progressive voters also find themselves in a problematic position. Either vote for yet another man accused of sexual assault, or risk a second term of Trump in the White House.
Biden has also already stated he will choose a woman as his running mate - a woman who will now have to defend him from these accusations. Though it is expected many progressives will stick by Biden, the pressure may begin to build on him to step aside as nominee. These allegations combined with his increasingly evident cognitive issues are raising questions about his adequacy and competency to challenge Trump for the Oval Office.
Many within the DNC were convinced that Biden represented the safe bet to beat Trump, while adamant that Sanders was unelectable among the electorate at large. As such, even if Biden were to step aside, Sanders would surely not be the automatic selection by a Democrat Party who have actively sought to stop him being the nominee in two consecutive election cycles. So, what are the other options facing the DNC if Biden were to become an obstacle to a Democrat White House ?
One solution would be that Biden continue as nominee past the convention and then step aside for whoever has been selected as his running mate. Many in the Democratic Party see Biden’s selection of running mate as absolutely crucial to the future of the Party. Not only because they may take is place if he stood aside before November, but also Biden’s choice could decide the future of the Democrat Party for the next 12 years. In the event that Biden did go on to win in November, he will be nearly 82 come the next election in 2024, and it is likely that he will not seek re-election. Instead, his Vice President would almost certainly be the Democrat 2024 candidate.
Biden has pledged to pick a woman as his VP candidate, with Warren among those touted, given she can bring a section of the progressive wing of the party along with her. Among others are Californian Senator Kamala Harris, Minnesotan Senator Amy Klobuchar, and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer.
Yet, there could be someone else waiting in the wings to take on Trump. Somebody with experience in a campaign against the current President. Hillary Clinton has been far from quiet the last few months, having partaken in numerous interviews, mainly on the release of a documentary series about herself. It is evident from these interviews that she is still bitter about her loss to Trump in 2016, and there is a sense she has unfinished business. Clinton has the contacts, resources and competency to challenge Trump despite her 2016 loss. Whether she would be a wise choice is hard to decipher, but nevertheless it would certainly be a political comeback of the ages to see her on the ticket come November.
One thing is clear. Biden is in troubled waters, and facing allegations which could be potentially fatal in his campaign to be President. It’s only May, with the election still 6 months away. A lot can happen in that time.
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