So we have an election! An attempt by the Prime Minister to once and for all resolve the burning question of the last three and a half years. Corbyn and Labour have received a small bounce since the election was called at the expense of the Lib Dems, and the same is true concerning the Conservatives and the Brexit Party. But what of the electoral strategies of the two 'Third Parties' in British politics. The Lib Dems announced in September that, were they to form a government at the next election, they would unilaterally revoke Article 50 and put an end to the Brexit process. The Brexit Party won the European elections in May by opposing the then Prime Minister's deal, and are now opposing the repackaged deal by Boris Johnson, which Farage calls a sell-out and a new European treaty. They still are calling for a clean break Brexit (No deal). So what are the possible election strategies of these two parties and why have they adopted them.
Starting with the Liberal Democrat's, who have adopted a simple and clear message of wanting to just stop Brexit completely. Their previous policy called for a second referendum where they would campaign for remain up against any deal, but since that (in part at least) became a policy of the Labour Party, the Lib Dems had to move to adopt an alternative, and more extreme position in preparation for an election. They would still, however, in the event of a Labour government, support a bill that proposed a second referendum. So why the change, apart from to offer a further alternative to remain voters?
Well this could be part of a long term electoral strategy to eventually challenge for government. We have heard a lot from Jo Swinson, and other Liberal Democrats as well, that it is possible that she may become the Prime Minister at this General Election. She knows, they know, we all know, that this is beyond unlikely. Yet it's an underlying message that is trying to be forced through to the electorate that the Liberal Democrats are a major party who can contend for government now and in the future. In all likelihood the Liberal Democrats are aware that the chances of Brexit being stopped are very slim, and although that is something that they of course would like to see, it will likely benefit the party politically speaking if Brexit were to happen. Their rhetoric over the last few months and more extreme position over Brexit is putting them in a position to say to the electorate 'I told you say' when perceived negative issues arise out of Brexit - whether they are legitimate criticisms or not. The Lib Dem's would likely argue that it is the Labour Party, as much as the Tory Party, who enabled Brexit to happen by not having a clear 'Remain' platform, and as a result, would try and vacuum up as much of the roughly 35-40% of the electorate that still want to remain in the EU, no matter what.
The Lib Dem's have also emphasised that they will not form a coalition with either of the two major parties. I would expect them to stick to this no matter what for a few reasons. Firstly, it wasn't long ago that a Liberal Party that had over 50 seats in parliament, entered into Coalition with Cameron's Conservatives, and consequentially got destroyed at the 2015 election. They will not make the same mistake. Even if it were to form a Lib-Lab Coalition, the Liberal's would rather wield power as a Parliamentary party working with and against a Labour minority government, than hold a position or two in cabinet. This way they would still likely get a second referendum, but wouldn't be tied to the Labour government which could be catastrophic for the party at the ballot box, as it was in 2015. Expect the Liberal Democrat's to be a major force at the next election in 2024 or before, especially if Brexit gets done.
What of Farage and the Brexit Party? Well they have taken a clear stand against the deal that the Prime Minister managed to negotiate late on with the EU, arguing that it basically ties the UK to the EU indefinitely. Farage offered a electoral pact to Boris Johnson, which unsurprisingly was turned down, and as a result has said they will stand in approximately 600 seats. It is true that they could harm both the Labour Party, in the northern and midlands leave, yet Labour, voting areas, as well as Conseravtives in areas where they may split the Leave vote and let in the Liberal Democrats. The argument of the Brexit Party is somewhat confusing.
They suggest that the transition period with the EU, as set out in Mr Johnson's deal, is indefinite, if Parliament doesn't support ending the transition period without a deal, which the current makeup of Parliament would not. However, it has been clear from not only the rhetoric of Johnson since he took office, but also the actions, that he would be willing to end the transition period without a trade deal with the EU, if they were unable to agree a satisfactory one. Yet the only way he would be able to enforce that is with a majority in Parliament, something that the existence of the Brexit Party may threaten. As well as that the best way for Johnson to get as good a trade deal with the EU as possible (in Farage's eyes at least) is by being able to negotiate that trade deal with a clear and comfortable majority in Westminster. So ironically, Farage and the Brexit Party, by going up against the Conservatives in leave areas (both traditional Labour seats and traditional Tory seats), may well end up being partly responsible for the one thing they don't want, which would be a Parliament that is not prepared to walk away at the end of the transition period. And the only way Parliament would be prepared to do that is with a comfortable Tory majority.
The future of the Brexit Party in the event of Brexit is still uncertain as well. Clearly they will campaign during any transition period for a clean break, or a relatively distant trade deal with the EU, compared to those that may be proposed by Labour or even the Liberal Democrats. But what of other policies, and are they destined to become a major political force domestically for years to come? Only time will tell.
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