As the Covid-19 pandemic takes hold in the United States as it has in Europe, governments are scrambling to deal with the consequences and ‘flatten the curve’. Those who have paid attention to the response and rhetoric around President Trump may be surprised to find that his approval ratings are at the highest they have ever been. The United States is seeing the same exponential rise in cases as has been seen in Europe, and soon will become the leading nation in pure numbers ahead of both China and Italy. Yet over the last month, you wouldn’t have thought there was any particular urgency about the arriving pandemic, as Trump responded questionably to the crisis. Rather than leading and seeking to calm an increasingly scared US population, Trump has had one eye on November’s re-election. The irony may be that his lack of leadership skills in responding to this crisis, may be the very thing that costs him re-election for a second term.
Let’s start with some raw stats. The United States now has over 75,000 confirmed cases - likely to rise to over 100,000 in the next three days or so. With over 1,000 deaths, this contrasts with the far smaller population of Italy who have had over 80,000 confirmed cases and 8,000 deaths. The reality is the United States, and many other countries too are behind on the curve. They should expect the same kind of exponential growth that the European epicentres have experienced. Currently, the death toll has been rising more slowly than those in Europe, though this could change very quickly. Nevertheless, the statistics suggest that the United States may be better prepared for this than others. They have a higher number of critical care beds than every major European country (more than 5 times more than the UK), and 15 times that of China. Also, the demographics of the United States are significantly younger than many of their European compatriots. Many of the worst affected have over 20% of their populations above the age of 70 (whilst in the US it’s only 14%) - given that the evidence suggests the mortality rate for that group is substantially higher, this could skew the statistics drastically. These statistics may be misleading. Healthcare in the United States is far from a right - it is a privilege. There are some 38 million people without any medical insurance, a number that has grown rapidly under the Trump administration. There are tens of millions more who are underinsured - with only the most basic of coverage. Many of these are far less likely to seek costly medical attention. This will make it harder to track and mitigate the spread of the virus, as well as putting those around infected individuals at increased risk. There is also no requirement for American employers to offer sick leave which may lead to more people showing up for work, even if they, or someone in their family has mild symptoms. This will inevitably increase the risk of infection.
Trump meanwhile has come under the spotlight from much of the media over the last few weeks and months. Only yesterday he suggested that he hoped to re-open the country by Easter - in two weeks time, something that medical experts have made clear is impossible. Having said that he would continue holding rallies, after the cancellation of the Democrat rallies he noted - ‘The Democrats won’t be having rallies, but nobody showed up to their rallies anyway so what difference does it make’. This is straight out the Trump playbook. He highlights the superiority and popularity of his rallies compared to the Democrats, while deflecting away from the question. When asked by an NBC journalist what he would say to the many scared American citizens, Trump responded - ‘I say that you’re a terrible reporter. That’s what I say’, and then criticised the reporter for his ‘nasty question’. Trump has regularly attacked the media over the years, but in a time when he is expected to lead, and coming at a crucial time in the run up to the Presidential campaign, has he misjudged his response? It’s worth remembering the position Trump had been in heading into this election year. The fundamentals from Trump’s first term have been strong. The economy has been showing strong performances, even if many feel it is fragile. Unemployment is at the lowest average for a first term President since records began, and hit a 50 year low of just 3.5% in December 2019. T rump’s foreign policy has also been sound. Despite often leading his foreign policy rhetoric from his twitter page, Trump has not started costly wars, made progressive steps on North Korea, reduced the influence of Islamic State in the Middle East, and successfully killed their leader, al Baghdadi. He also took the bold action to kill an Iranian military leader, without triggering war with Iran. The unsuccessful Democrat impeachment may also help him, as it simply gave publicity to Trump being inevitably acquitted of all charges. On many measures, he had done enough in his first three years of office to put himself in a strong position for re-election.
All this combined with the success of incumbent Presidents over the last three decades suggests that an effective and decisive response to the coronavirus pandemic would have made Trump a daunting prospect to face in the election campaign. Former Vice President Joe Biden, who now looks likely to become the Democrat nominee, will provide a stiffer test to the current President than Bernie Sanders. Biden represents a more centrist option for the American electorate than the self affirmed Social Democrat Sanders. The Former Vice President also holds respect among some Republicans, as much as a politician can in the current political climate! He was of course one of the late Senator John McCain’s best friends. He is seen by many to be a pragmatic, yet compassionate politician, and he can certainly take the fight to Trump. Yet despite the misjudged response to the current crisis, Trump’s approval ratings are currently the highest they have been since he took office. This surely doesn’t correlate to the reality, or is this just another example of the media underestimating Trump and not appreciating the impact of his messaging and rhetoric? There are a combination of factors at play here. First, Trump has spent his whole Presidency attacking the media, consistently accusing the mainstream media of being ‘fake news’ and condemning ‘nasty’ reporters asking ‘nasty’ questions. His response to the outbreak was to attack the media again, and this does especially resonate with his supporters. Second, Americans tend to rally around the President when a crisis first hits. George Bush hit an approval rating of 90% after 9/11, and over 70% after the US invaded Iraq in 2003. The American public may also be viewing this emergency as a medical one. But as the cases start to rise and the virus spreads more aggressively across the United States, it could morph into an economic crisis and, for Trump if he continues with his rhetoric, a political one too. Trump won’t have been aided by his assertion that the the media are attacking him because they want to see the country locked down and the economy tank, so as to damage his re-election chances. His constant worry of re-election and his rhetoric during this period of crisis is what could cost him the election come November.
Yet it all could have been so different. A brief look over the pond to Boris Johnson, an equally polarising figure in British politics, shows the crisis response model Trump should have followed. PM Johnson has consistently delegated much of the decision making process outside of government, and to scientific advisors who have offered policy suggestions. When the evidence has suggested a change in response is needed, Johnson has acted quickly, even if at great economic expense. Above all, there has been little to no polarising rhetoric. Instead Johnson has sought to unify the country giving the public the perception of being on a war-footing against the spread of the virus. He has tended to dramatise the situation, both in order to protect people, but also, from a cynical view, for his own political gain. Consequentially, his approval ratings have increased dramatically. Whilst when he came to office he had a net approval rating of -21 (33% favourable, 54% unfavourable), it currently stands at +20 (55% favourable, 35% unfavourably). In the last week alone his net approval rating has moved from -2. So while Trump’s approval ratings may be the highest they have been, he has missed an opportunity to use the current crisis to seal him November’s election.
The full extent of the consequences of this pandemic on the United States are far from clear. The emergency over access to healthcare alone represents a significant problem, but coupled with a determined, yet troubling response from Trump, it could have massive political consequences. In his first three years Trump had set himself up for re-election, and this crisis gave him the perfect opportunity to increase his chances come November. Instead, it will likely cost him a second term in office.
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